Progress of major emitters towards climate targets

Our analysis shows that emission projections under current policies could peak by 2026. The lower end of the aggregated emissions of the 25 countries is approximately 1.5 GtCO₂e higher than in our last year’s report – mostly because of policy rollbacks in the USA. This range, of -6% to +4% compared to 2019 levels, remains insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C, which requires 43% emission reductions over the same period. By 2035, however, while the upper range of our projections sees only a modest decline in emissions, our lower end of projections declines at a much higher rate. 

Projections remain on a downwards trend, despite a decrease in the US emission reduction rate

Emissions are projected to decrease or stabilise by 2035 in 15 out of the 25 countries analysed. The EU, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Australia show a significant decline in this period. For China, emissions are projected to decrease, following a peak around 2025 and a period of stabilization up to 2030. In the United States, rollbacks on almost all Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) programs and several Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations have led to higher emissions projections compared to last year.

Progress towards NDC targets needs to be improved

Fifteen countries are likely on track to meet their 2030 unconditional NDC targets. The remaining nine countries with an unconditional NDC need to expand policy adoption to meet their announced targets. From the countries with a submitted or announced 2035 NDC target, only six are likely on track to reach it under current policies.

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