In the Environmental Outlook to 2050 from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) a number of scenarios and projection are used which are calculated with the IMAGE model suite. This document describes the models and modules used and their interconnections.
The modelling principle
The scenarios and projections for the OECD Environmental Outlook are the result of an integrated analysis of the economy-environment interface, in which, apart from economic factors influencing the environment, ample attention is given to physical factors related with the energy and agriculture sectors (See figure).
Models used in the OECD Environmental Outlook2050
IMAGE – Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment
IMAGE is an ecological-environmental framework that simulates the environmental consequences of human activities worldwide. It represents interactions between society, the biosphere and the climate system to assess sustainability issues like climate change, biodiversity and human well-being. The objective of the version of IMAGE described here (version 2.4 released in 2006) is to explore the long-term dynamics of global change as the result of interacting demographic, technological, economic, social, cultural and political factors.
LEITAP – Landbouw Economisch Instituut Trade Analysis Project
The model LEITAP is a general equilibrium model. Based on inputs such as demographic development, increase in labor productivity and trade conditions, the model calculates consumption, production and trade of a large number of commodities and services. Both the agricultural sector and land use are modelled with more detail than in general economic models.
TIMER – Targets Image Energy Regional model
TIMER is an energy-system simulation model, describing the demand for and the supply of energy for 26 world regions on a yearly basis until the end of the century. The purpose is to make long-term projections for energy-related emissions of greenhouse gasses and their mitigation, serving as an input to calculations on climate change in IMAGE.
FAIR – Framework to Access International Regimes
The FAIR model is an interactive, decision-support tool to analyse environmental and costs implications of climate mitigation regimes for future commitments for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. The model links long-term climate targets and global reduction objectives with regional emissions allowances and abatement costs, accounting for the used Kyoto Mechanisms. The results can be analyzed at various geographical scales.
GISMO - Global Integrated Sustainability Model
GISMO is a modelling framework to analyse developments in Quality of Life in relation to social, economic and environmental changes (the three sustainability domains: People-Planet-Profit). The GISMO model enables analysis of the effects of specific policies on human development, such as poverty, health and education, and the interlinkage with the environment.
GUAM – Global Urban Air Quality Model
>The GUAM model calculates the PM10 concentration for 3300 major cities and the resulting health effects. The model is based on the World Bank The Global Model of Ambient Particulates (GMAPS) model and includes next to demographic, geographic and meteorological conditions also emissions from major air pollutants.
Global Nutrient Model
Wastewater flows containing nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) from households and industries are calculated on the basis of sanitation, connection to sewage systems and nutrient removal in wastewater treatment systems. Human nutrient emissions as well as phosphorus from detergents are related to per capita income by country.
GLOBIO - Global Biodiversity model
GLOBIO is a modelling framework to calculate the impact of five environmental drivers on land biodiversity for past, present and future. biodiversity. GLOBIO is based on cause-effect relationships, derived from the literature. To use GLOBIO no detailed species data are needed. Instead, the model uses spatial information on environmental drivers as input. This input is mainly derived from the Integrated Model to Assess the GlobalEnvironment (IMAGE).
EDGAR – Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research
The EDGAR database calculates and stores global emission inventories of greenhouse gases and air pollutants from anthropogenic sources including halocarbons and aerosols both on a per country and region basis as well as on a grid.