UNEP Emissions Gap report 2026

The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return looks at a ‘lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming by around the middle of the century is limited to 1.7-1.8°C and global temperature rise is returned to or below 1.5°C by 2100, with a 50 per cent chance.

To get onto this pathway, relative to 2025 levels global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would have to be reduced by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040. This requires far deeper emission cuts than are projected under full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) which only amount to 5-8 percent by 2030 and 11-15 percent by 2035, relative to 2025 levels.. 

The report shows many opportunities to accelerate action. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, renewable energy has boomed, total energy supply from coal and oil has grown slower than projected and climate policies have cut emissions in many places. Since the Paris Agreement, global renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated, with solar PV build- out increasing seven times faster. A continuation of these trends, supported by additional policies, would bring the world on track to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 and increase the share of wind and solar in electricity generation to levels consistent with the lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot scenario.

“Unfortunately we find that the target of 1.5 °C with limited overshoot is no longer possible. Our best scenario is now an overshoot of 1.7 or 1.8 °C by midcentury. On the other hand we see success stories that give reasons for hope. The growth rate of renewable technologies has surprised many. It shows that more progress is possible if governments are willing to step up their efforts,” says author Michel den Elzen of PBL Environmental Assessment Agency.

Temperature projections still far too high

The report finds that if current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8°C within this century and increase thereafter. If all NDCs are delivered and similar efforts continue, warming will be limited to 2.6°C. These outcomes are worse than last year’s projections due to the withdrawal of the United States of America from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. New NDCs submitted since last year’s report have made a small difference for these projections.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, where all NDCs plus additional net-zero targets are achieved, global warming would only be limited to 2.1°C in this century. Without urgent action, keeping peak warming below 1.7 to 1.8°C will quickly become impossible. Every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels pushes peak warming up by around 0.1°C.

In addition, the lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot scenario creates a need for the removal from the atmosphere and permanent storage of roughly 320 gigatonnes of CO2 (equal to eight years of 2024’s global CO2 emissions) over the course of this century. This would be a huge effort.