Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios to expert projections
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are computer-based instruments used to assess the implications of human activity on the human and earth system. They are simultaneously also used to explore…
Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C
This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these…
Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C
The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively…
Signal detection in global mean temperatures after Paris: an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs (global mean surface temperatures) below 2.0 °C, it is important to know how GMST has progressed since pre-industrial times. We performed an…
Unpacking the nexus: Different spatial scales for water, food and energy
Recent years have shown increased awareness that the use of the basic resources water, food, and energy are highly interconnected (referred to as a ‘nexus’). Spatial scales are an important but…
Renewable energy generation and energy saving are increasing, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are decreasing. However, various targets for energy and climate for 2020, will not be…
Nitrogen leaching from natural ecosystems under global change: a modelling study
To study global nitrogen (N) leaching from natural ecosystems under changing N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO 2 , we performed a factorial model experiment for the period 1901–2006 with the N…
The worldwide context of China’s Green Transition to 2050
China is entering a crucial period of economic transformation, largely triggered by environmental issues. Chinese advisors are formulating a policy framework to guide this vast, complex and decades…
Greenhouse gas emission curves for advanced biofuel supply chains
Most climate change mitigation scenarios that are consistent with the 1.5–2 °C target rely on a large-scale contribution from biomass, including advanced (second-generation) biofuels. However, land…
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
