Staying on track: a bottom-up Paris-aligned pathway driven by COP initiatives

There is an emerging trend of interplay between the goals of voluntary initiatives and the outcomes of the Global Stocktake and COP decisions. In addition, assessing these goals can help set objectives and develop roadmaps for thematic areas within the COP 30 Action Agenda, which aims to mobilise voluntary climate action from civil society, businesses, investors, cities, states, and countries. However, the global efforts in these outcomes lack specificity. Therefore, the goals and signatories of these initiatives can serve as indicators of ambition and progress for the COP agreements. For example, transport initiatives with specific goals for low-carbon cars, buses, and trucks can align with the less concrete global stocktake goal, aiming to accelerate the reduction of emissions from road transport. 

In this article, we assessed the global aspirational goals of COP initiatives and found that they are generally aligned with cost-effective 2 °C pathways at the sectoral level, as projected by the IMAGE model for 2030. Moreover, the Global Methane Pledge and the international aviation initiative are even more ambitious compared to the 1.5 °C pathway. After 2030, the initiatives’ pathways fall short of the 2 °C pathway, indicating that increased ambition is required between 2030 and 2050, both through domestic and non-state actions, including the initiatives themselves.