Adjusting supply in the EU ETS

Significantly higher emissions, barely lower energy costs

The European Commission has proposed adjustments to the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS). Until 2050, these adjustments can lead to 33% more CO₂ emissions in the energy-intensive industry, electricity production, shipping, and aviation, report the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. On the other hand, the expected decline in the price of emission allowances is limited, while the market price stability decreases. 

CPB and PBL researched the consequences of two proposed adjustments: an easing of the emissions cap and a reform of the market stability reserve (MSR). Part of these adjustments involves scrapping the so-called invalidation mechanism that permanently removes surplus emission allowances from the market. The analysis looks at the impacts on emissions, emission prices, and market stability through 2050. 

Authors

PBL Authors
Corjan Brink
Other authors
Arjan de Ruiter (CPB)
Herman Volleberg (CPB)

Specifications

Publication title
Adjusting supply in the EU ETS
Publication subtitle
Significantly higher emissions, barely lower energy costs
Publication date
11 September 2026
Publication type
Report
Page count
28
Publication language
English
Product number
6239