A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. 

Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors.

We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.

Authors

PBL Authors
Jos Olivier
Other authors
William F Lamb
Thomas Wiedmann
Julia Pongratz
Robbie Andrew
Monica Crippa
Dominik Wiedenhofer
Giulio Mattioli
Alaa Al Khourdajie
Jo House
Shonali Pachauri
Maria Figueroa
Yamina Saheb
Raphael Slade
Klaus Hubacek
Laixiang Sun
Suzana Kahn Ribeiro
Smail Khennas
Stephane de la Rue du Can
Lazarus Chapungu
Steven J Davis
Igor Bashmakov
Hancheng Dai
Shobhakar Dhakal
Xianchun Tan
Yong Geng
Baihe Gu
Jan Minx

Specifications

Publication title
A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018
Publication date
29 June 2021
Publication type
Artikel
Publication language
Engels
Magazine
Environmenal Research Letters
Issue
Volume 16, Number 7
Product number
4699