Emission pathways and climate targets

This study examines LMICs’ contribution to climate policy, focusing on emissions gaps, sectoral emissions, and policy costs. Enhanced renewable energy deployment, reduced reliance on fossil fuels, and strengthened international cooperation are all essential to aligning global emissions with climate goals. Addressing financing gaps and capital costs is crucial to achieving climate targets collectively and equitably. 

Emission gaps and policy challenges 

The current policy scenario developed for this study projects a global temperature increase of 3 °C by the end of the century. Even if all Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would be fully implemented, warming is still projected to reach 2.2 °C by 2100. While focusing on large LMICs, both the current policies scenario and NDCs lead to increasing emissions in Brazil and Indonesia, exceeding the fair-share allocations consistent with the Paris Agreement by mid-century. The fair-share allocations explore the share of regional emissions based on fairness principles – equality, responsibility, and capability. Under current policies, South Africa's emissions are projected to exceed the 1.5° C and well-below 2 °C fair-share targets. The NDC, however, is consistent with the well-below 2 °C fair-share pathway. Western Africa's emissions are projected to grow but stay within the 1.5 °C fair-share target.

The role of sectors and associated costs 

The role of sectors vary depending on the region and the scenarios. In general, potential emission reduction strategies include forest conservation, rapid electrification, efficiency improvements, and renewable energy expansion. Based on this, cost-effective mitigation potential in LMICs is found to be substantial, typically exceeding the emission reductions required under fair-share allocation consistent with the Paris Agreement. However, LMICs often face financial constraints to fully harness this potential. Scaling up climate finance and facilitating access to affordable finance are therefore essential. The total volume of mitigation costs depends on socio-economic development and the cost of capital. A sustainable socio-economic pathway could lead to faster emissions reductions at lower mitigation costs. Similarly, lower financing costs can accelerate a transition to low-carbon development, underscoring the need for bilateral and multilateral collaboration to improve access to affordable finance.