The new NDCs for 2035

Countries stated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs; mitigation ambitions) under the Paris Agreement, with the intention to achieve its global goal of keeping the increase in temperatures well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C. Of the 180 Parties that have an active NDC, 104 submitted new NDCs with 2035 mitigation targets by end of March 2026.

Projections indicate that NDCs increase gap with pathways in line with Paris goal 

We find that projected aggregated global emission reductions by 2035 resulting from the new NDCs are not sufficient to be in line with reductions by 2035 on Paris aligned pathways. Together, the new NDCs are expected to lead to global greenhouse gas emission reductions of about 8–9% (unconditional NDCs) or 11–12% (including conditional NDCs) by 2035 compared to 2019 levels, which is not sufficient to be in line with scenarios limiting temperature increase to 1.5 °C (with >50% chance) or to likely below 2 °C (>67% chance). The new NDCs also increase the emissions gap: full implementation of NDCs for 2035 leads to larger projected emissions gaps with Paris aligned pathways compared to NDCs for 2030.

Several NDCs align with net zero targets or reductions limiting global warming to likely below 2 °C, only few align with limiting warming to 1.5 °C 

We evaluated G20 economies’ new unconditional NDCs by applying various approaches: we compared them to emission reductions on linear pathways to their net zero targets and to reductions on pathways limiting temperature increase to 1.5 °C and likely below 2 °C that are allocated cost effectively and via fairness principles. Of the fourteen NDCs for 2035 submitted by these countries, eight are in line with their net zero target. Only five are in line with any of the possible reductions limiting global warming to 1.5 °C (with limited overshoot). In more cases, they are aligned with limiting global warming to likely below 2 °C, with almost all of them in line with at least one of the corresponding allocations.

The assessment in this policy brief is based on a limited set of approaches, and more or alternative viewpoints could be explored. However, we conclude that, according to multiple approaches, Parties should increase the ambition in their NDC submissions to keep the climate goal of the Paris Agreement within reach.