Promising climate progress from net-zero ambitions to the Paris Agreement goal
The Paris Agreement requires strong commitments from countries worldwide. Multiple studies have shown that the short-term contributions of countries, as communicated in the NDCs, fall short of achieving the climate goals. Countries, however, have also communicated long-term reduction plans, often formulated as the year in which net-zero emissions will be achieved. In this study, a multi-model intercomparison exercise led by Isabela Tagomori from PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency explores the effectiveness of countries' net-zero ambitions in a systematic way, using a range of different modelling approaches, identifying effective mitigation options (looking into sectors and regions), and assessing the overall costs of mitigation. The models included in the study vary from cost optimization to recursive-dynamic simulation and general equilibrium models.
The results show that implementing the net-zero pledges can considerably reduce the gap towards limiting warming to well below 2°C, although more action is needed. The analysis provides insights into the benefits of expanding net-zero coverage worldwide and accelerating action through earlier mitigation, and shows that this can help reduce reliance on carbon-intensive energy sources.
It also shows that most emission reductions are driven by gains in energy efficiency, a strong phase-down of coal and other fossil fuels, and the electrification of sectors such as transport and heavy industry. The required transformations are closely related to regional specificities and the reduction potentials within these sectors and regions. While high shares of renewable energy are achievable, their emergence is not guaranteed, as political choices continue to play a role. Therefore, the study highlights that international cooperation is key to navigating national priorities and collectively achieving the global climate goal.
Authors
Specifications
- Publication title
- Promising climate progress from net-zero ambitions to the Paris Agreement goal
- Publication date
- 22 April 2026
- Publication type
- Article
- Publication language
- English
- Magazine
- Nature Climate Change
- Issue
- 16, 550–557 (2026)
- Product number
- 6132
