Progress of major emitters towards climate targets | 2026 update

Our analysis shows that emission projections could peak this year, assuming full implementation of policies currently in place. In the lower end of the aggregated emissions of the 26 emitters, the downwards trend in projections remains similar to last year’s report. However, the upper end of our projections sees a plateauing of emissions by 2035, driven by updated projections in China and India, where continued industrial energy demand and reliance on coal counterbalance emission reductions in other countries. According to our results, the range of -4% to +3% emission projection in 2030 compared to 2019 levels, remains insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C, which requires 43% emission reductions over the same period.

Aggregate emission projections remain on a slight downwards trend, despite policy rollbacks 
Emissions are projected to decrease or stabilize by 2035 in 13 out of the 26 countries analysed. The EU, Japan, the United Kingdom and Australia show a significant decline in this period. For China, emissions are projected to decrease by 10% to 20% between 2024 and 2035, following a peak around 2025. On the other hand, emissions are projected to increase in the remaining thirteen countries, with three emitters moving into this category from the stabilizing category of last year.

Progress towards NDC targets still needs to improve 
Thirteen countries are likely on track to meet their 2030 unconditional NDC targets. The remaining eleven countries with an unconditional NDC need to expand policy adoption to meet their announced targets. From the nineteen countries with a submitted 2035 NDC target, only eight are likely on track to reach it under current policies.