ELEVATE Annual Net-Zero Report: Roadmap of transitions to net-zero

Key findings include:

•    Net-zero emission targets cover most global emissions, but insufficient current policies leave a substantial implementation gap. As of August 2026, 138 of 198 UNFCCC Parties have a net-zero target in some form, covering 74% of global emissions. However, current policies are insufficient to reach these targets, leading to a stabilisation of emissions after 2050 and warming of 2.5-3.2°C by 2100. If countries would implement their net-zero targets, it could substantially reduce the emission gap, leading to warming of 1.5-2.1°C by 2100.

•    Sectoral transformation and transitioning away from fossil fuels are essential to climate mitigation. Learning from “good performance” seen in the past decade, such as transport electrification and wind and solar uptake, can help reduce emissions, but further efforts are needed. Meeting the Paris Agreement goals requires total and unabated fossil fuels to fall by 68% and 78% below current supply levels, respectively, in a 1.5°C-compatible pathway.

•    Carbon removal has become necessary to reach ambitious climate goals, and especially to deal with overshoot – but it must be governed fairly. CDR becomes increasingly important to reach net-zero and deal with overshoot, but large-scale deployment of CDR technologies faces techno-economic, environmental, social and institutional challenges. Public support for CDR hinges on procedural and distributive fairness: consulting experts and local communities, as well as sharing or foregoing profits consistently increase support for such technologies.

•    Justice and ambitious climate objectives can be combined. Providing decent living to all can be reconciled with ambitious climate targets, but increases global energy demand by 10-20% around 2040 (though strongly affected by how services are delivered). Different effort-sharing principles imply various combinations of domestic action and international finance, but pathways with equitably distributed mitigation efforts exist.

•    Climate policy must now be designed in a fractured landscape. This means that climate policy can no longer be treated as purely environmental. In order to make progress, it is important to link climate policy to other societal goals, such as energy security, air pollution and justice. Furthermore, governance needs to be built for a fragmented world - investing in coalitions of the willing, technology partnerships and sustained research collaboration can help in finding common ground and rebuilding trust.

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