Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach
By January 2022, 156 countries had submitted new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This study analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and…
Uncertain effectiveness of Miscanthus bioenergy expansion for climate change mitigation explored using land surface, agronomic and integrated assessment models
Large-scale bioenergy plays a key role in climate change mitigation scenarios, but its efficacy is uncertain. This study aims to quantify that uncertainty by contrasting the results of three different…
Targeted Green Recovery Measures in a Post-COVID-19 World Enable the Energy Transition
Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present…
Developing scenarios in the context of the Paris Agreement and application in the integrated assessment model IMAGE: A framework for bridging the policy-modelling divide
The framework presented in this study aims to provide insights into how climate policy is represented in integrated assessment models, responding to the call to link model scenarios with concepts used…
Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights
As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that…
Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system
Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as…
Identifying Potential Clusters of Future Migration Associated With Water Stress in Africa
Water stress negatively affects rural livelihoods that depend on agriculture. In some contexts, this can influence migration decisions, especially in vulnerable regions with limited adaptive capacity…
Navigating the political: An analysis of political calibration of integrated assessment modelling in light of the 1.5 °C goal
Some of the most influential explorations of low-carbon transformations are conducted with Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). The recent attempts by the IPCC to look for pathways compatible with the…
The plastics integrated assessment model (PLAIA): Assessing emission mitigation pathways and circular economy strategies for the plastics sector
Integrated assessment models (IAM) study the interlinkages between human and natural systems and play a key role in assessing global strategies to reduce global warming. However, they largely neglect…
Quantifying synergies and trade-offs in the global water-land-food-climate nexus using a multi-model scenario approach
The human-earth system is confronted with the challenge of providing a range of resources for a growing and more prosperous world population while simultaneously reducing environmental degradation…
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