Exploring future changes in land use and land condition and the impacts on food, water, climate change and biodiversity: Scenarios for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook
The pressure on land is growing in many regions of the world, due to the increasing demand for arable crops, meat and dairy products, bio-energy and timber, and is exacerbated by land degradation and…
Reducing hunger while staying within planetary boundaries of pollution, land use and fresh water use is one of the most urgent sustainable development goals. It is imperative to understand future food…
The occurrence of many species in the EU is expected to further decline, making it difficult to reach the 2050 policy vision. This study elaborates four ‘perspectives’ on the future of nature in the…
BioScore 2.0, a species-by-species model to assess anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial biodiversity in Europe
The BioScore 2.0 model analyses impacts of human-induced pressures on European terrestrial biodiversity. The model can be used for scenario analysis and the assessment of policy options. This report…
Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework
We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the…
Climate Change Will Make Recovery from Eutrophication More Difficult in Shallow Danish Lake Søbygaard
Many lakes around the world suffer from nuisance algal blooms and biodiversity loss, caused by excess nutrient loading. Recent studies indicate that these problems are aggravated by the ongoing global…
Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison
This paper compares projections over the twenty-first century of SO 2 , BC, and OC emissions from three technologically detailed, long-term integrated assessment models. The character of the…
Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios
In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution…
Negative global phosphorus budgets challenge sustainable intensification of grasslands
Except for grassland soils in some northwestern European countries, grassland soils in most of the world have been exhausted over recent decades, particularly by exporting more phosphorus that is…
Joint Actions for Air Quality and Climate Mitigation in Europe
Combined action for air and climate can be undertaken by (i) targeting atmospheric compounds that happen to have detrimental impacts on health, ecosystem and climate at the same time (short lived…
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