Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios
Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto…
Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios
This paper explores the climate consequences of “delayed near-term action” and “staged accession” scenarios for limiting warming below 2 ° Celsius (C). The stabilization of greenhouse gas…
Actual global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) reached a new record of 34.5 billion tonnes in 2012. Yet, the increase in global CO 2 emissions in that year slowed down to 1.1% (or 1.4%, not…
Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report noted that Annex I countries’ targets for 2020 would need to be 25% to 40% below the 1990 level to be in line with the 2° Celsius (C) target. What is the equivalent…
Countries’ contributions to climate change: effect of accounting for all greenhouse gases, recent trends, basic needs and technological progress
Discussions at UN climate negotiations tend to focus on which countries have contributed most to climate change. This contribution depends on the methods for calculating both historical and current…
Cost of greenhouse gas mitigation - comparison between TIMER and WorldScan
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency uses the TIMER and Worldscan models to assess the costs and effects of global climate change policies. Both models have their strengths and weaknesses…
The impact of technology availability on the timing and costs of emission reductions for achieving long-term climate targets
While most long-term mitigation scenario studies build on a broad portfolio of mitigation technologies, there is quite some uncertainty about the availability and reduction potential of these…
A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic…
The European Commission has launched a discussion with its Green Paper on climate and energy policies. PBL has analysed the effects of various assumptions on Member States' emission targets for 2030…
Implications of the international reduction pledges on long-term energy system changes and costs in China and India
This paper analyses the impact of postponing global mitigation action on abatement costs and energy systems changes in China and India. It compares energy-system changes and mitigation costs from a…
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