Exploring future changes in land use and land condition and the impacts on food, water, climate change and biodiversity: Scenarios for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook
The pressure on land is growing in many regions of the world, due to the increasing demand for arable crops, meat and dairy products, bio-energy and timber, and is exacerbated by land degradation and…
Emissions of transboundary air pollutants in the Netherlands, 1990–2015: Netherlands Informative Inventory Report 2017
In the 2017 Informative Inventory Report (IIR) by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the Dutch emission data on transboundary air polluting substances have been…
Reducing hunger while staying within planetary boundaries of pollution, land use and fresh water use is one of the most urgent sustainable development goals. It is imperative to understand future food…
Spatiotemporal dynamics of soil phosphorus and crop uptake in global cropland during the 20th century
Phosphorus (P) plays a vital role in global crop production and food security. In this study, we investigate the changes in soil P pool inventories calibrated from historical countrywide crop P uptake…
The occurrence of many species in the EU is expected to further decline, making it difficult to reach the 2050 policy vision. This study elaborates four ‘perspectives’ on the future of nature in the…
Lessons from temporal and spatial patterns in global use of N and P fertilizer on cropland
Many high-income countries have experienced excessive nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs from fertilizer and animal manure in crop production in the 1970s and 1980s. Landscapes have a nutrient…
BioScore 2.0, a species-by-species model to assess anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial biodiversity in Europe
The BioScore 2.0 model analyses impacts of human-induced pressures on European terrestrial biodiversity. The model can be used for scenario analysis and the assessment of policy options. This report…
Building Bridges from the Present to Desired Futures - Evaluating Approaches for Visioning and Backcasting
Backcasting explores how to reach ambitious societal goals--- identifying strategic choices and windows of opportunity. After early applications in the 1980s, this approach to scenario analysis is now…
Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework
We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the…
Climate Change Will Make Recovery from Eutrophication More Difficult in Shallow Danish Lake Søbygaard
Many lakes around the world suffer from nuisance algal blooms and biodiversity loss, caused by excess nutrient loading. Recent studies indicate that these problems are aggravated by the ongoing global…
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