Understanding transition pathways by bridging modelling, transition and practice-based studies
This paper presents an introduction to and overview of the papers in this Special Issue of Technological Forecasting & Social Change on ‘Transition Pathways’ is presented. Each of these papers are an…
Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America
The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits…
Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review
In sub-Saharan Africa, 160 million grid-connected electricity consumers live in countries where hydropower accounts for over 50% of total power supply. A warmer climate with more frequent and intense…
The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts
This study examines model-specific assumptions and projections of methane (CH 4 ) emissions in deep mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs). For this, scenarios of nine…
Decarbonisation options for the Dutch zinc industry
This report on decarbonisation options for the Dutch zinc industry is part of the MIDDEN project (Manufacturing Industry Decarbonisation Data Exchange Network) initiated by PBL and ECN part of TNO…
A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation
Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile…
Making the Paris agreement climate targets consistent with food security objectives
Climate change mitigation is crucial to limit detrimental impacts of climate change on food production. However, cost-optimal mitigation pathways consistent with the Paris agreement project large…
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14…
Model-based assessments for long-term climate strategies
Many countries are formulating a long-term climate strategy to be submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by 2020. Model-based, multi-disciplinary assessments can be a…
First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect
We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on…
Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving
